Housing Trends

Philadelphia Region Not Participating In Housing Recovery

May 28, 2014 by admin

Philadelphia Inquirer 05/28/14

Splashed across the Business Section of the Inquirer last week was the headline “Analysis: Housing prices in region fell in 1st quarter“. Counter to the nationwide trend of increasing housing prices the suburban areas surrounding Philadelphia saw an average prices drop an average of 5.3% in the 1st quarter of 2014. Delaware County saw a steeper decline with a drop of 8.6%. The regional housing market is struggling to recover from the post recession blues.

Wallingford and Swarthmore saw increases in closed sales over the 1st Quarter 2013 – Wallingford units increased from 27 last year to 39 this year, and Swarthmore saw a net increase of 1 closed sale from 10 last year to 11 this year. The Media market saw sharp declines in closed units across the board.

Just how did our local markets – Wallingford, Swarthmore, and the Media area fare during the 1st quarter 2014:

1st Quarter 2014 Local Market Performance

*AREA*	*2013 AVG*	*2014 AVG*	*CHANGE*
Wallingford	$347,494	$240,010	-30.9%
Swarthmore	$340,540	$320,036	-6.0%
Media Boro	$283,638	$270,448	-4.7%
Middletown Twp	$332,365	$304,821	-8.3%
Upper Providence Twp	$340,023	$307,703	-9.5%

June represents the high water mark of housing activity for the year so we will be able to ascertain if the market has made any significant departure from a weak 1st quarter locally. As mortgage rates have hit 7 month lows recently that excuse no longer is valid, lack of marketable inventory is more likely a culprit, but with a tight supply the expected result would be higher prices right?

Wallingford PA Real Estate – Wallingford, PA 19086

How Did Zillow Come Up With That Price For My House?

March 31, 2014 by admin

Wallingford PA Real Estate - Wallingford PA - Biltmore Mansion - Aheville NC

How Much Is Your Castle Worth Online?

If you are a seller you need to be prepared for buyers citing the valuation of homes that is produced by Zillow’s Zestimate model. Zillow and other web sites such as Trulia use what is known as an AVM (Automated Valuation Model) algorithm that utilizes Public Records to produce an estimate of a home’s value.

There are inherent issues with any AVM mathematical model in that no matter how sophisticated they claim to be they can not factor in a home’s condition, improvements, and other factors that can only be ascertained by a professional that make a personal visit to a property. Automated estimates are also subject to differences in Public Records with respect to important aspects of a home such as square footage and the number of bedrooms and bathrooms. I have often observed significant differences in these data points in Delaware County Public Records.

I did a quick review of 4 homes that recently settled in Wallingford and compared Zillow’s Zestimate against actual selling prices. The range of accuracy was quite varied, the closest being 3.6% lower than the actual selling price and the largest variance coming in at 16.3% lower than the actual selling price. In other words that variances amount to real money – a 16.3% variance on the average selling price of a single family hone in Wallingford this year of $290,888 comes to almost $47,500, a 3.6% variance amounts to almost $10,500.

In Zillow’s published accuracy tables the Zestimates produced for home in Delaware County claim to have a median error of 6.2%, with 40.9% of estimates coming in within 5% of the selling price, 71.2% being within 10% of the selling price, and 88.3% of estimates within 20% of a homes selling price.

I think is wise for a seller to be aware of the estimated value of their home that buyers are seeing and searching for on the web, but the word estimate makes up a majority of the word Zestimate and it is just that – an estimate.

Wallingford PA Real Estate – Wallingford, PA 19086

Wallingford And Swarthmore Buyers Are Ignoring The Winter!

February 3, 2014 by admin

Wallingford PA Real Estate - Wallingford PA - SNow Covered Stop Sign

There Is No Stopping Buyers So Far This Winter

Despite continued weather conditions that seem inhospitable to consumer buying of any sort the Wallingford PA and Swarthmore markets have been very active this winter so far. Amid economic reports of declining retail sales due to bad weather homebuyers in the area are proving to be an exception.

A common measure of real estate activity is known as the absorption rate which measures the rate of sale of a given market’s inventory. The calculation is very simple and uses the number of active listings on the market divided by the number of listings that have gone under contract in the past 30 days. In retail this would be analogous to the term inventory turn. In real estate a rate that is below 6 indicates a seller’s market, 6 is a neutral market, and a rate above 6 indicates a market where the buyer’s are in control. So what does this measure tell us about our local markets?

Wallingford:

The absorption rate stands this morning, amid our latest winter event, at 3.9 months. There have been 19 homes that have gone under contract in the past 30 days amid 74 active listings. This portrays a strong seller market where there is a lack of inventory, and according to basic economic theory will result in higher prices – too many buyers chasing too few homes.

Listings that have the most appeal to buyers are moving quickly, 4 of the listings that went under contract were on the market 7 days or less, and even homes that have seen extended time on the market are selling as well.

A oft heard lament among agents and buyers alike this year so far has been a lack of inventory available.

Swarthmore:

The activity in Swarthmore is even more pronounced. The absorption rate today stands at 1.2 months – there have been 10 homes sold in the past 30 days amidst 12 listings. That is a rate that basically indicates homes selling as soon as they hit the market. The under contract group as a whole averaged 47 days on the market, but the 5 quickest sales were on the market 6, 8, 9, 11, and 18 days.

If you are a buyer under these conditions you should ally yourself with a local agent who knows the area well and can keep you informed of listings before they come onto the market though their networks, and be ready to act quickly on a listing that have mass appeal.

If you are a seller considering listing your home all the indicators are pointing to a market that will continue to need more inventory to keep up with the market demand, which is a situation that has not been seen for quite sometime.

The Spring Market is off to an early start and should be a very active one.

Wallingford PA Real Estate – Wallingford, PA 19086

What State Has The Most Millionaires?

January 28, 2014 by admin

Want meet a millionaire? Your best bet would be to head just south to Maryland to find the state with the most millionaires in 2013 according to CNNMoney.

Maryland has the largest millionaire population and the highest ratio of millionaires to households in the nation, with 7.70% of households in the state boasting that moniker.

Pennsylvania has a ratio of 5.24% of millionaires to households. New Jersey takes second place in the list with a 7.49% ratio, and Delaware is in 9th place with a ratio of 6.20%.

Mississippi has the distinction of having the lowest number of millionaires among it’s population at 3.63%.

The top millionaire states From “Where America’s Millionaires Live,” CNNMoney (January 2014)

1 – Maryland: 7.70%
2 – New Jersey: 7.49%
3 – Connecticut: 7.32%
4 – Hawaii: 7.18%
5 – Alaska: 6.75%
6 – Massachusetts: 6.73%
7 – Virginia: 6.64%
8 – New Hampshire: 6.48%
9 – Delaware: 6.20%
10 – California: 6.04%

Wallingford PA Real Estate – Wallingford, PA 19086

Housing Market Gains Statewide In 2013

January 14, 2014 by admin

Wallingford PA Real Estate - Wallingford PA - Pennsylvania Housing Market Posts Gains Over 2012 In 2013

The Pennsylvania Housing Market In 2013 Posted Gains Over 2012

2013 results locally were mixed with the Wallingford PA market recording a 21.9% gain in closed sales, and the Swarthmore market finishing with a 11.4% decrease in homes sold. Both markets showed increases in the average selling price. Across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania the housing market showed signs of positive growth and momentum.

More about the market’s positive upswing statewide in 2013.

By Author: Kim Shindle, Manager of Media Relations at the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors®.

Wallingford PA Real Estate – Wallingford, PA 19086

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1st Quarter 2014 Local Market Performance

S. Clark Kendus